The Pie: A Tariff War Brewing

Hey Pies -

I heard Mexico was changing the name of singer Amy winehouse to Amelia Casatequila.

Over the past 48 hours the Presidents to the North and South, the stock market and consumer sentiment are pushing President Trump's Wicked Tariff plan to a pause...

I've spent my whole career in systems, and as someone that believes there is true power in collaboration. Unfortunately, collaboration dies as contempt rises. After calls today with Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo the President of Mexico, there is a one month pause on Mexico Tariffs and Canada soon followed.

But this is really keeping me up at night: we're delaying true collaboration Mexico and Canada. And this time? It's not just about expensive avocados (though trust me, we'll get to that).

We've all been reeling over the weekend from planning our next flights to wrapping our minds around Elon taking over treasury while markets and futures swing down. There are very clear warning signs of some massive tariffs from our neighbors up north and down south. Why? Because apparently, we didn't learn our lesson from 2018's trade drama or Parables of the Sower. Deep sigh.

Let me break this down like I'm explaining it to my cousin at Sunday dinner last night:

Picture your grocery bill right now. Brunch soon? Our orange mimosas are going to be even higher soon. Now add 25% to basically everything that crosses a border. Fun, right? We're talking:

• Those Mexican tomatoes in your Penne a la Vodka? Prepare your wallet.
• That beef for your weekend BBQ because it is 70 degrees in February - already? Better start saving up.

And before she said, "Whatever, I'll just buy local/US grown/made," I had to clear something up. Your local farmer? They’re likely exporting to Canada or Mexico or raising prices because their field workers are being rounded up. Your favorite restaurant? Their supply chain depends on cross-border ingredients. That food processing plant employing half your hometown? It’s tied into North American trade, too. This isn't just about individual products—it's about entire industries that keep our economy moving.

"Folks, we're loading the gun to shoot ourselves in the foot."

Here’s what kills me: North America could be the 1, and the 2, and the 3 in global trade. We touch two oceans. We are close to South America and West Africa, and we've got:

📌 $3.7 trillion in annual trade flows between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Source: USTR United States Trade Representative

📌 5 million U.S. jobs depend directly on trade with Canada and Mexico. Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce United States-Mexico Chamber of Commerce

📌 We're that pickle. 25% retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico will drive up costs on beef, dairy, produce, and grains.

📌 Mexico feeding half of America's avocado toast addiction. Mexico supplies 80% of America’s avocados and is the top source for winter vegetables. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Service (ARS)

📌 Canada literally keeping our lights on. Canada is the U.S.'s largest energy supplier, essential for electricity and fuel stability. Source: Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC)

These numbers tell a clear story: North America should be building economic strength together, not disrupting it with trade wars. Today's stock market (February 3, 2025) is speaking against a loading debt spiral.

But instead of listening on this foundation, we're out here acting like we can just... what? Go it alone? In this economy? In this empathy crisis?

Instead of fighting our neighbors, imagine If we:

• Built serious cross-border food infrastructure (because just like that your Starlink contract can be cancelled)
• Got our AI game together across all three countries (robots don’t care about borders, why should we?) and align against larger powers of China and Russia which is going directly for resources in Europe and Africa.
• All learned how to create more at-home gardens to ease even the tiniest of supply.

Meanwhile, while we’re out here playing trade war games for instant political flurry. And what are we doing? Starting drama with our literal next-door neighbors.

There are trillions of dollars to gain from smiling over the fence...

Some of the best advice I've heard: A good neighbor increases the value of your property.

Don't leave the dog poop on Mexico's lawn.

On this block we can rise - or at least we should try! 🥑

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